Australia's rental market falls behind as migration adds 13,750 households a month, new analysis shows

2026-09-21 09:03저자: Linda Hu

요약Australia's post-pandemic migration surge is outpacing rental supply by thousands of homes a week, according to new research by property data firm FoundIt. The country's rental pool is shrinking as investors sell faster than new stock enters the market. A national poll meanwhile shows seven in ten Australians would rather cap migration than try to build their way out of the housing crisis.

HouGarden Australia, 10 September — The data, drawn from Australian Bureau of Statistics figures and analysed by Australian property research firm FoundIt, shows the national rental pool is thinning week by week because investors are selling rental properties faster than new investors are replacing them with fresh listings.

Australia's population grew by an estimated 34,400 people per month over the year to December, adding 412,500 residents in total, according to FoundIt's analysis of ABS data. Net overseas migration accounted for 301,000 of those new arrivals — nearly three-quarters, or 73 per cent, of total population growth.

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Applying an average household size of 2.5 persons, FoundIt estimates that monthly growth is creating 13,750 new households every month. Unlike established residents who move between buying and renting, most newly arrived migrants must find a rental property immediately, with the majority settling in major capital cities.

FoundIt head of research Kent Lardner said migration-led growth was pushing rental demand in one direction only. 'Demand in this market is a conveyor belt, not a cycle,' he said. 'Twenty-five thousand migrants a month walk out of the airport and into a rental inspection queue. You can argue about the right level of migration, you cannot argue the queue isn't there.'

A geographical breakdown by the Institute of Public Affairs, an Australian think tank, identified Sydney as the most heavily affected city. The IPA analysed net migration flows across the three financial years from 2023 to 2025 and found overseas arrivals far outnumbered the volume of local residents leaving the city.

Over that three-year post-pandemic period, 352,874 net overseas migrants settled in Sydney, while 113,088 residents departed. A further 86,157 people were added through natural increase — births minus deaths.

New arrivals concentrated in a small number of urban areas. Three city regions alone absorbed 41 per cent of Sydney's entire net overseas migration across the period. The Greater Parramatta area received close to 50,000 net overseas migrants; the inner southwest absorbed around 48,300; and the CBD and inner south gained approximately 47,700 from net overseas migration.

IPA senior fellow Dr Kevin You said: 'Sydney has been ground zero for the unprecedented post-pandemic mass migration.'

A separate national poll, conducted by Primara Research on behalf of HomeLoanRates.com.au, found that a large majority of Australians no longer believe the government can resolve the housing crisis through construction alone. When respondents were asked to choose between capping migration or fixing housing supply, 71 per cent chose capping migration against 29 per cent who favoured a supply-side fix.

Majorities in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland all supported cutting migration, broadly in line with the national result. Without a forced choice, 64 per cent of respondents said the current migration intake was 'too high,' while just 4 per cent said it was 'too low.'

Primara head of research Peter Drennan said the polling suggested the concern was primarily about housing costs rather than employment. 'Australians aren't rejecting migrants. They're rejecting the idea that we have any hope of building our way out of this,' he said. 'Given a supply-side fix and a migration fix for the same problem, they reached past the one that requires us to meet a building goal we constantly fall short of, rather than change a policy.'

Among respondents who believed migration was pushing up housing costs, 82 per cent said the current intake was too high. Among those who did not make that connection, only 21 per cent held the same view.

Support for reducing migration varied by political affiliation. Primara found 82 per cent of One Nation voters and 70 per cent of Coalition voters favoured cuts. That figure dropped to 46 per cent among Labor voters and 34 per cent among Greens voters.

For investors already holding or considering Australian residential property — including those among HouGarden's readership — the figures illustrate the structural pressure on Australia's rental market. Rental demand driven by migration is not cyclical, FoundIt's analysis suggests; it is continuous, and current supply is not matching it.

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