Australia's Labor government unveils migration overhaul: business and miners on board, but farmers and hospitality push back
HouGarden Australia, 18 September — Net overseas migration (NOM) — the net number of people who arrive in Australia and remain for more than 12 months — currently stands at approximately 292,130 people a year, according to figures cited by Minister Burke. Labor's target is to bring that figure down to 225,000 by 2028. That is a separate measure from total population growth, which also includes natural increase — the excess of births over deaths — currently running at close to its lowest recorded level of around 100,000 people a year. Combined, Labor's NOM target would push overall annual population growth down to roughly 325,000 people — a level Australia last reached in 2011, outside the disrupted COVID period.
In the 12 months to the latest data, Australia's population grew by 392,728 people, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which released new population figures on the same day as Burke's announcement. That figure is well below the 2008 peak of 459,504 but still higher than comparable years such as 2012 (405,826) and 2017 (407,984). The ABS data also showed that the post-COVID surge in migration has already begun to recede, and that overall population growth is now slower than in the years before the pandemic.
Burke's package of reforms includes a proposal to introduce a ballot system for the Working Holiday Maker program and to set a three-month processing time limit for those applications. The ballot system is currently a policy proposal and has not been passed into law. The government also wants to tighten student visa rules to prevent 'visa hopping', to crack down on rogue migration agents, and to attach a No Further Stay condition to all visitor visas to prevent their use as a pathway to extending time in Australia. It also intends to step up the removal of visa overstayers.
Burke framed the announcement as a deliberate contrast to more aggressive reduction targets from rival parties. One Nation had earlier in the week proposed pushing NOM into negative territory for three years before capping it at 130,000 annually. The Coalition is finalising a policy expected to target NOM of between 150,000 and 170,000. 'We are now walking straight into an argument,' Burke said on Thursday, arguing that deeply cutting migration numbers would force large-scale hospital closures in regional areas, leave aged care facilities without staff, and make it impossible to find doctors outside major cities.
Andrew McKellar, chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), described the policy package as a 'material toughening' of the migration system and broadly endorsed it. 'On balance, I think it's a fairly reasonable plan that's been put forward,' McKellar told The Business. 'It certainly doesn't do significant damage to the economy, but it does leave some gaps.' He said One Nation's plan 'would plunge the Australian economy into a deep recession and would also curtail the long-term growth potential of the economy,' adding that Labor's approach was 'steady, responsible.' McKellar also acknowledged that the overall reduction in migration levels was 'something that the public has been calling for' and said he hoped the reforms would 'restore some confidence in the system going forward.'
The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) gave the announcement a warm reception, specifically welcoming Labor's decision to give priority processing to skilled workers in the resources sector. 'The government's plan makes sense,' MCA chief executive Tania Constable said. She noted that the MCA had raised concerns in August about changes introduced in July that had pushed many skilled applicants based outside Australia further down the visa queue — changes she said risked hampering mining companies' ability to bring in highly specialised workers. Constable said skilled migrants make up just 1.24 per cent of the minerals workforce. 'The real measure of these changes will be whether an Australian mining company looking for an engineer, geologist, metallurgist or other critical specialist can actually get that person here faster,' she said.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) also backed the reforms, with chief economist Tim Reardon saying they offered a 'balanced, long-term direction for Australia's migration system.' Reardon highlighted measures recognising trade qualifications, prioritising visa processing for construction workers, and improving recognition of overseas skills. 'These policies can work to mitigate the boom-to-bust cycles that the building industry has endured over recent years,' he said. For readers considering a skilled trade migration pathway to Australia, the explicit prioritisation of construction workers in visa processing represents a meaningful practical change if the reforms are implemented as announced.
Farmers and the hospitality industry rejected the reforms. James Goodwin, chief executive of Accommodation Australia, said the hotel sector faces chronic workforce shortages and the changes will make the situation worse. 'What's lost in all this talk about migration numbers is that fundamentally Australia as a nation has a huge workforce challenge here,' Goodwin said. 'It will now be harder for hotels to access the workers we need, and the changes will increase competition in an already tight labour market.'
The Australian Hotels Association (AHA) specifically objected to the proposed restrictions on Working Holiday Makers. 'Targeting working holiday makers makes no logical sense — they are a motivated and mobile workforce who help fill seasonal work, especially in the regions,' said AHA chief executive Stephen Ferguson. The proposed ballot system for Working Holiday Maker visas, if ultimately passed into law, would directly affect people — including New Zealand residents — who hold or are planning to apply for an Australian working holiday visa.
The National Farmers Federation (NFF) warned that the Albanese government was putting Australia's food security, regional economies and farm safety at risk. 'If the government wants to end rorts, then it should target the rorts,' NFF president Hamish McIntyre said. 'It should not punish the farmers doing the right thing or the regional communities that depend on a workforce pathway that has helped feed this country for decades.'
Even McKellar of the ACCI, who broadly supported the package, conceded that tourism, hospitality, accommodation, restaurants and cafes represented a 'critical miss' in the government's migration policies and that those industries would suffer as a result.
