Pacific cyclone season forecast to bring elevated risk for eastern regions, with seven to eleven named storms expected

2026-10-15 12:27May-akda: Linda Hu

BuodEarth Sciences New Zealand is forecasting an above-normal cyclone season for parts of the Pacific, with seven to eleven named storms possible between November and April 2027. Samoa, Tokelau and parts of Kiribati face the highest risk, driven by a strong El Niño pattern currently unfolding. New Zealand's own risk is rated normal, though northern and western areas near the Tasman Sea may encounter decaying storms more often than eastern regions.

HouGarden New Zealand, 14 October — Earth Sciences New Zealand released its Southwest Pacific cyclone season outlook on Wednesday, developed in collaboration with MetService New Zealand, the University of Newcastle in Australia, and several Pacific Islands meteorological services. The forecast covers the season running from 1 November 2026 to April 2027.

The outlook puts the likely range of named cyclones in the Southwest Pacific at between seven and eleven. Earth Sciences warns that at least four of those storms could reach category 3 or above, and that such severe cyclones could strike anywhere across the region.

AGENT SHOWCASE LISTINGS

The forecast identifies a clear east-west split in risk. North, central and northeast areas of the Southwest Pacific — including Samoa, Tokelau and parts of Kiribati — face an elevated risk of cyclone impacts. Activity is expected to be higher near and to the east of the International Date Line, a zone that is normally relatively quiet.

By contrast, the East Coral Sea — which includes New Caledonia and Vanuatu — is forecast to experience normal to reduced activity. Fiji and Tonga, along with the wider north Coral Sea and west central areas of the Southwest Pacific, are expected to see near-normal activity.

Principal scientist Andrew Lorrey said the season may also start early. He said there are strong indications that cyclone activity in the Southwest Pacific is likely to increase compared to recent seasons.

"Over the long term, cyclone numbers have been gradually decreasing in the Southwest Pacific, but there can be prominent year-to-year variability," Lorrey said. "During past strong El Niño events like the one that's currently unfolding, we've typically seen elevated numbers of cyclones across the region, along with more activity to the east of the International Date Line. This is an area that's usually fairly quiet."

Lorrey rated New Zealand's risk for the coming season as normal. He added a note of caution for the country's northern and western coastlines: "This year there is the potential that northern and western areas facing the Tasman Sea have more of a chance of experiencing a decaying storm than eastern regions."

Earth Sciences stressed that the category 3-or-above threshold means destructive storms remain a possibility for any community in the Southwest Pacific, and urged all populations in the region to prepare regardless of whether their local area sits in an elevated, normal or reduced risk zone.

网站声明原创声明：本文系文章顶部作者原创采写，未获书面授权严禁转载! 在获授权前提下，转载必须在醒目位置注明本文出处和具体网页链接。对未注明而擅自转载者，将保留追究法律责任的权利。评论规范： 1. 所有评论均以读者个人身份发表，并不代表后花园立场。 2. 不得使用任何肮脏和亵渎的措辞。 3. 不得进行人身攻击，不得公开或泄露他人隐私。 4. 不得发布侮辱或歧视任何种族、国籍、性别、地域、年龄、职业等方面的言论。 5. 不得在读者评论区散发广告讯息，不得大量转抄其他媒体的文章。 6. 不得煽动仇恨、暴力、歧视。 7. 不得以任何隐晦方式发布上述不当言论，包括但不限于使用字母、数字、代号、谐音、链接跳转等。 8. 后花园保留对违反上述规范的留言行为进一步处理的权力。