Australia's August jobs data seals the case for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise, economists say

2026-09-25 00:47Autor: Linda Hu

ZusammenfassungAustralia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 4.6 per cent in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has confirmed. Two leading economists say the result, despite a softening in full-time hiring, removes the last obstacle to a Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase next week. One analyst warns the cash rate could eventually reach 5.4 per cent — its highest level since 2008.

HouGarden Australia, 24 September — ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick said 39,000 more people were in employment in August while 28,000 more people were recorded as unemployed. Part-time employment rose by 46,000 over the month, while full-time employment fell by 6,000.

Crick noted a shift in labour flows during the month. 'This August we recorded a higher proportion of people who were previously not in the labour force moving to being unemployed, compared to recent years,' he said. The participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 67.1 per cent, reflecting growth in the overall size of the labour force. The underemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage points to 6.2 per cent.

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Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said the data, taken as a whole, pointed toward a rate rise. 'All up... the strength in employment during August needs to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the RBA will likely be guided by the still reasonably firm range of other labour market indicators, such as job advertisements and corporate hiring intentions,' he said.

Bassanese said the Reserve Bank of Australia would likely treat the rise in unemployment as a necessary cost of cooling the economy. 'For the RBA, the lift in unemployment will likely be regarded as unfortunate, but the price that needs to be paid to create more slack in the economy and lower domestic-demand-driven inflation pressure,' he said.

His base-case forecast — meaning his single most likely outcome, not a certainty — is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points next week, bringing it to 4.60 per cent. Note that this figure coincides numerically with August's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.6 per cent, but the two measures are entirely separate. Bassanese also put even odds on a further increase at the Reserve Bank of Australia's Melbourne Cup Day meeting in early November.

Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at VanEck, said he expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to act as well. 'The slight softening in the labour market isn't enough to stop the RBA raising rates next week and may well need to increase rates again this year, most probably at the December meeting,' he said.

Chesler raised the possibility of a third increase in 2024. 'We could even see a third increase next year bringing the terminal rate for this cycle to 5.4%, the highest the RBA cash rate has been since 2008,' he said. Both forecasts represent market expectations rather than confirmed Reserve Bank of Australia policy decisions.

For New Zealand-based investors with property holdings or investment exposure in Australia, the prospect of a higher Australian cash rate would increase borrowing costs on Australian-dollar debt. Any readers considering trans-Tasman property investment should note that this is an Australian monetary policy story and has no direct bearing on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand or New Zealand mortgage rates.

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